Indians have always been serious about the national security and anything related to the security and safety of their country has been their priority. As a result of the Balakot airstrikes in February 2019, Indians kept everything aside and praised Prime Minister Modi for the brave step. It was a good time for Modi when he witnessed a huge jump in his approval ratings from 32% in the starting to 60% straight. Having entered the elections with this mindset, BJP was quite confident to emerge as a clear winner. This was further concreted by the exit poll results which reflects that the Modi led government will clean sweep this election as well.
Why it could be wrong?
Exit polls are just a mere guess on what is on the mind of people. However, predicting anything especially election results is difficult across the world. Even though many polls are saying that BJP-NDA alliance is in a strong position to form the government, recent electoral polls across the world has warned us the other way. Brexit as well as American election results were completely opposite of what the polls there predicted. This weekend only, Australians were left with a surprise when the election results defied poll results. In India, these polls are often proved wrong reflecting a contrasting difference between the final and predicted result.
One popular theory behind this is shown by political scientist Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann explaining why there have been increasing differences between the actual and predicted polling results. The theory says that the people who thinks they hold a minority view on a public issue, won’t raise their voice just because of the fear of being excluded by the majorities.
That could be the reason why people who have actually voted against BJP didn’t come up as strong as the people who did. Anyway, the nation will know soon who’ll rule for the next five years.